学术成果

当前位置: 首页 > 学术科研 > 学术成果 > 正文

[论文]Qie, Zijun ; Rong, Lili:A scenario modelling method for regional cascading disaster risk to support emergency decision making

发布日期:2022-11-07    作者:     来源: 十大菠菜网正规平台     点击:

摘要:A scenario modelling method for cascading disasters was proposed in this study to support decision making for complex disaster emergency preparation and response. Considering the causality of different events and complex interconnections of the elements at risk in disaster-affected regions, we constructed a conceptual framework for regional cascading disaster scenario analysis based on the regional disaster system theory. Subsequently, an interrelation network generation method to depict a hazard-affected region was proposed considering the characteristics of the disaster system; consequently, a dynamic evolution model of cascading disasters was developed. Further, a virtual region was designed to illustrate the application of the region modelling method and the dynamic evolution model of cascading disasters. Finally, we proposed two dimensions for analysis of cascading risk based on the scenario simulation results: the disaster consequence evolution trend of typical elements at risk and the disaster consequence cascading risk from the perspective of network structures. They can help identify the critical disaster scenario slices that aggravate the cascading effect of disaster consequence and be referenced to make efficient emergency decisions under cascading disaster scenarios.

关键词:Cascading disastersScenario modellingDisaster evolutionElements at riskTopological interrelation of impact


DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103102

原文刊载于:INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,JUL 2022

原文链接:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420922003211?via%3Dihub






62.9K
十大菠菜网正规平台

地址:山东省青岛市即墨区鳌山卫街道滨海路72号 邮编:266200

电话:0532-58630301,58630339

扫一扫
微信公众号

版权所有 十大菠菜网正规平台 - 最权威菠菜导航网-官方正版